Duncan Wood / Center for Strategic and International Studies
Over the past two weeks, the public debate over who will lead the major parties into the 2012 presidential election campaign has heated up. The election results in Guerrero and Baja California Sur (BCS) allowed both the PAN and PRD to claim victories, and also served to increase the internal debates within the two parties over who will represent them in the presidential campaign for 2012. Over the next few weeks this blog will examine the three main parties and their internal contests to determine presidential candidates. This blog article focuses on the various leading potential candidates in the PAN, examining both their backgrounds and their electability.
In the aftermath of the PAN victory in BCS, Gustavo Madero, the president of the PAN, has employed a political communication strategy emphasizing two points. First, that the PAN will definitely run its own, rather than a coalition, candidate in the summer of 2012. Second, he has stressed the sheer number of potential candidates in the PAN. In media interviews, Madero has suggested that there are ten or more viable candidates in the party, responding in part to critics who have argued that the PAN lacks a single candidate that could challenge the PRI’s Enrique Peña Nieto for the presidency.
Although Madero has refused to name these potential candidates, he also refrained from ruling out anyone from a list of eight names presented to him in an interview with Joaquín López Dóriga of Radio Formula. Those names were: current Secretaries of State Ernesto Cordero (Finance), Alonso Lujambio (Education), Javier Lozano (Labor) and Heriberto Félix Guerra (Social Development); Governors Emilio González Márquez (Jalisco) and Juan Manuel Oliva (Guanajuato); and, Legislators Josefina Vázquez Mota and Santiago Creel.
Of these names, five stand out as clear contenders:
Santiago Creel is currently seen as the leading contender for the PAN candidacy, and has effectively been on the campaign trail since losing the PAN primary to Felipe Calderón in 2006. His political experience is far too extensive to describe here, but several factors must be mentioned. First, Creel is a lifelong member of the PAN who has spent his entire political career building up support and networks around himself. Second, he is a seasoned political campaigner who has had a number of high profile run-ins with the media, causing him significant political damage. Third, as Interior Minister he served under Vicente Fox from 2000-2005, building up an impressive political following. Lastly, but perhaps most importantly, he is also a great political survivor who has reinvented himself after the disappointment of 2006, and currently serves as president of the PAN contingent in the Senate. He is also the PAN contender who has worked hardest to market his image, devoting an enormous effort to building credibility within the party and society. His political machine has attempted to connect him to the student democracy movement of 1968, the struggle against media monopolies, and has even stressed his family’s connections to the Mexican Revolution. At the time of writing he is far and away the leading contender in the PAN based on opinion polls, but his ability to challenge Peña Nieto remains highly suspect. When placed side-by-side in opinion polls, the public has picked his PRI rival by a margin of more than 2-to-1, again and again.
Josefina Vázquez Mota is one of the leading contenders for the PAN candidacy due to her active self-promotion, her extensive political networks and her experience in campaigning. In 2006, she was the campaign manager for Felipe Calderón’s successful bid for the presidency, and afterwards served as Education Minister (preceding Alonso Lujambio). Prior to this, she was a member of President Vicente Fox’s inner circle for a number of years, serving as Social Development Minister between 2000-2006. In 2009, she quit the Education Ministry to run for office as a Federal Deputy in the July of that year and, following her election, was elected president of the PAN parliamentary group in the Chamber of Deputies. Vázquez Mota is recognized as a “mover and shaker” in the PAN, and is a divisive figure because of her activity. At the present time she is generally seen as being the second most popular of the PAN contenders.
Ernesto Cordero has long been recognized as a favorite of Calderón’s and has served as minister of both social development and finance. His handling of the Mexican economy since his appointment to the position of Finance Minister (especially during the recovery from the economic crisis of 2009) lends him a great deal of credibility, although it can be argued that much of the groundwork was actually laid by his predecessor in the position, now-Governor of the Bank of Mexico, Agustin Carstens. In recent weeks, Cordero has begun to make references to his former role as social development minister, perhaps in order to lend a more caring dimension to his public image. Until recently, Cordero has had a very low public recognition, according to opinion polls, and his lack of dynamism when it comes to public speaking stands out as an obvious weakness.
Alonso Lujambio is seen as having the image and credentials needed to challenge Peña Nieto on his own terms. His background as an ITAM professor of political science, member of the Federal Electoral Institute’s (IFE) governing council, President of the Federal Institute for Access to Information (IFAI), and now as education minister grant him impeccable political credentials. He is generally recognized as being the most photogenic of the PAN potential candidates, and he has already featured in a number of high profile policy campaigns (such as the national campaign against obesity and junk food in schools) that have caught the media spotlight. However, his lack of a history within the PAN stands against him (he only officially joined the party in June of 2009), and his public recognition is still relatively low.
Javier Lozano is a former PRI official who served under Salinas and Zedillo and converted to the PAN in 2006, with extensive political experience on both sides of the political divide. A lawyer by training from Puebla, he has worked in finance, telecommunications and now in labor policy. Lozano is universally recognized as a savvy political operator, and has very strong networks from his history in both PRI and PAN governments. The Calderón government’s efforts with regard to job creation are of vital importance to his electability and, though he and his ministry have stressed the large number of jobs created in Mexico in 2010, the overall level of unemployment remains depressingly high, a factor that will surely count against him.
The PAN race is clearly underway but there is so much flexibility at this point in time that nothing is written in stone. Creel’s early lead can be eaten away by the actions of his challengers, a new contender could appear, and the question of an alliance with the PRD is far from resolved.
Over the past two weeks, the public debate over who will lead the major parties into the 2012 presidential election campaign has heated up. The election results in Guerrero and Baja California Sur (BCS) allowed both the PAN and PRD to claim victories, and also served to increase the internal debates within the two parties over who will represent them in the presidential campaign for 2012. Over the next few weeks this blog will examine the three main parties and their internal contests to determine presidential candidates. This blog article focuses on the various leading potential candidates in the PAN, examining both their backgrounds and their electability.
In the aftermath of the PAN victory in BCS, Gustavo Madero, the president of the PAN, has employed a political communication strategy emphasizing two points. First, that the PAN will definitely run its own, rather than a coalition, candidate in the summer of 2012. Second, he has stressed the sheer number of potential candidates in the PAN. In media interviews, Madero has suggested that there are ten or more viable candidates in the party, responding in part to critics who have argued that the PAN lacks a single candidate that could challenge the PRI’s Enrique Peña Nieto for the presidency.
Although Madero has refused to name these potential candidates, he also refrained from ruling out anyone from a list of eight names presented to him in an interview with Joaquín López Dóriga of Radio Formula. Those names were: current Secretaries of State Ernesto Cordero (Finance), Alonso Lujambio (Education), Javier Lozano (Labor) and Heriberto Félix Guerra (Social Development); Governors Emilio González Márquez (Jalisco) and Juan Manuel Oliva (Guanajuato); and, Legislators Josefina Vázquez Mota and Santiago Creel.
Of these names, five stand out as clear contenders:
Santiago Creel is currently seen as the leading contender for the PAN candidacy, and has effectively been on the campaign trail since losing the PAN primary to Felipe Calderón in 2006. His political experience is far too extensive to describe here, but several factors must be mentioned. First, Creel is a lifelong member of the PAN who has spent his entire political career building up support and networks around himself. Second, he is a seasoned political campaigner who has had a number of high profile run-ins with the media, causing him significant political damage. Third, as Interior Minister he served under Vicente Fox from 2000-2005, building up an impressive political following. Lastly, but perhaps most importantly, he is also a great political survivor who has reinvented himself after the disappointment of 2006, and currently serves as president of the PAN contingent in the Senate. He is also the PAN contender who has worked hardest to market his image, devoting an enormous effort to building credibility within the party and society. His political machine has attempted to connect him to the student democracy movement of 1968, the struggle against media monopolies, and has even stressed his family’s connections to the Mexican Revolution. At the time of writing he is far and away the leading contender in the PAN based on opinion polls, but his ability to challenge Peña Nieto remains highly suspect. When placed side-by-side in opinion polls, the public has picked his PRI rival by a margin of more than 2-to-1, again and again.
Josefina Vázquez Mota is one of the leading contenders for the PAN candidacy due to her active self-promotion, her extensive political networks and her experience in campaigning. In 2006, she was the campaign manager for Felipe Calderón’s successful bid for the presidency, and afterwards served as Education Minister (preceding Alonso Lujambio). Prior to this, she was a member of President Vicente Fox’s inner circle for a number of years, serving as Social Development Minister between 2000-2006. In 2009, she quit the Education Ministry to run for office as a Federal Deputy in the July of that year and, following her election, was elected president of the PAN parliamentary group in the Chamber of Deputies. Vázquez Mota is recognized as a “mover and shaker” in the PAN, and is a divisive figure because of her activity. At the present time she is generally seen as being the second most popular of the PAN contenders.
Ernesto Cordero has long been recognized as a favorite of Calderón’s and has served as minister of both social development and finance. His handling of the Mexican economy since his appointment to the position of Finance Minister (especially during the recovery from the economic crisis of 2009) lends him a great deal of credibility, although it can be argued that much of the groundwork was actually laid by his predecessor in the position, now-Governor of the Bank of Mexico, Agustin Carstens. In recent weeks, Cordero has begun to make references to his former role as social development minister, perhaps in order to lend a more caring dimension to his public image. Until recently, Cordero has had a very low public recognition, according to opinion polls, and his lack of dynamism when it comes to public speaking stands out as an obvious weakness.
Alonso Lujambio is seen as having the image and credentials needed to challenge Peña Nieto on his own terms. His background as an ITAM professor of political science, member of the Federal Electoral Institute’s (IFE) governing council, President of the Federal Institute for Access to Information (IFAI), and now as education minister grant him impeccable political credentials. He is generally recognized as being the most photogenic of the PAN potential candidates, and he has already featured in a number of high profile policy campaigns (such as the national campaign against obesity and junk food in schools) that have caught the media spotlight. However, his lack of a history within the PAN stands against him (he only officially joined the party in June of 2009), and his public recognition is still relatively low.
Javier Lozano is a former PRI official who served under Salinas and Zedillo and converted to the PAN in 2006, with extensive political experience on both sides of the political divide. A lawyer by training from Puebla, he has worked in finance, telecommunications and now in labor policy. Lozano is universally recognized as a savvy political operator, and has very strong networks from his history in both PRI and PAN governments. The Calderón government’s efforts with regard to job creation are of vital importance to his electability and, though he and his ministry have stressed the large number of jobs created in Mexico in 2010, the overall level of unemployment remains depressingly high, a factor that will surely count against him.
The PAN race is clearly underway but there is so much flexibility at this point in time that nothing is written in stone. Creel’s early lead can be eaten away by the actions of his challengers, a new contender could appear, and the question of an alliance with the PRD is far from resolved.
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